How To Create Alternative Futures

The future, by definition, is uncertain. In other words , it cannot be known. In many cases, it is a world of endless possibilities. These alternative futures, told by different sources, can be more or less justified; that is, they can rely on evidence from the present and the past or, on the contrary, on superstitions.

To believe in either future, one might think that the best thing to do is to trust the evidence of the present. Therefore, 3 ways to create  future s alternative are explained below. These futures can be used to create literary stories as well as to conduct strategic analysis. What they have in common is that they are based on the evidence that the present gives us.

Scenario analysis

Creating future alternatives serves to reduce uncertainties and manage risks.  Alternative futures determine different ways in which a situation can evolve, which can be used to make decisions or limit risk. They can also be used to know what actions to take to achieve a given goal.

Be aware that alternative future scenarios do not predict the future. However, they can limit possible futures. These techniques are used when there is considerable uncertainty about what will happen.  When the uncertainty is very low or the situation is so chaotic that it is impossible to determine the future, these techniques are not recommended. These techniques are useful in that they force us to think about factors and futures that would otherwise not be taken into account.

Simple scenarios

The technique of simple scenarios is the easiest. This consists of clearly defining which object is going to be processed. It can range from the future of the world to that of a continent or a small town. Once the object has been identified, we must select the forces, factors and / or events  that relate to the object. Thus, in the case of the future of a country, the economy or the political system can be decisive. Likewise, a revolution would be a factor that could clearly influence the future.

Once we have chosen the object and determined all the factors, we can  create 4 future scenarios. One in which everything remains the same, another where everything will get worse, one where everything is better and, finally, another alternative, different from the previous ones.

Then you need to create a table with the scenarios on the one hand and the factors on the other and then assign positive, negative or neutral values ​​to each factor based on how those factors would be in each of the 4 scenarios. Finally,  after eliminating the factors that have the same valuation in all scenarios, we can begin to write our future. For that, it is necessary to take into account the factors and their valuations, it is they which will condition to a large extent the future.

Analysis of alternative futures

In the analysis of alternative futures, it begins as in simple scenarios. The object is defined and the most important forces, factors and / or events are sought. At this point, we need to assess the factors to stay only with the 2 factors deemed most important for the future. These 2 factors will represent 2 lines that we will draw in the form of a cross, which will define 4 quadrants. That is to say the 4 possible futures.

That way, the factors will be positive on one side of the line and negative on the other. Thus, in one of the quadrants, the 2 factors will be positive, in another negative and in the second, negative and the other positive. Consequently,  our alternative futures will be created according to the way in which the 2 chosen factors are developed, in a positive or negative way according to each of the possible combinations.

Generating multiple scenarios

Finally,  generating multiple scenarios is similar to analyzing alternative futures. The difference is that instead of choosing 2 factors, we select 3. Likewise, the factors are grouped in pairs, for a total of 12 different futures.

Although they may seem simple, these strategies are very effective. The biggest challenge is figuring out which forces or events are most important. Then you have to let your imagination run wild to describe a future in which these factors will change. For example, among the current series we find  The Master of the High Castle, which places one event as a driving force: the death of former US President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Now it remains only to decide which event will radically change the future.

Our thoughts

Generally, dystopian novels present a society of the future which finds itself in a deplorable or totalitarian situation for several reasons …